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Grid size dependency of short-term sea ice forecast and its evaluation during extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016
https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/15935
https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/15935792393f8-6c95-42f2-8a35-3f98a99cfd6c
Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
公開日 | 2019-09-30 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Grid size dependency of short-term sea ice forecast and its evaluation during extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
タイトル | Grid size dependency of short-term sea ice forecast and its evaluation during extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016 | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Sea ice forecasting | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Numerical simulation | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Arctic cyclone | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Arctic sea routes | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
著者 |
De Silva, Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath
× De Silva, Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath× Yamaguchi, Hajime |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Recently, cyclones are quite active and dramatically influence the sea ice distribution in the Arctic region. Therefore, precise prediction of sea ice distribution during the cyclones is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. A high-resolution (about 2.5 km) ice–ocean coupled model is developed for forecasting the short-term sea ice distribution along the Arctic sea routes. Since a commercial ship navigates to avoid the sea ice as much as possible, a factor to score the forecast skill is considered to be ice edge error which is an averaged distance between forecasted and observed ice edges. First, we discuss the influence of horizontal grid resolution on short-term sea ice predictions during May to November 2015. The model grid resolution is varied from 2.5 km, 5 km, 10 km and 15 km. This grid dependency study suggests that the 2.5 km resolution model predicts the ice edge accurately compared to the satellite observations. Second, the primary experiment was run from 2 August 2016 to 7 August 2016 under the extreme cyclone in the Laptev Sea using ensemble predictions. The ensembles are constructed by using forecasted atmospheric forcing data sets from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data. The ensemble ice edge errors are computed from 2 August 2016 to 7 August 2016. The maximum forecast skill of ensemble average ice edge error in the ice–ocean coupled model is 11.74 ± 0.54 km with the threshold of 15% ice concentration for the AMSR2 and model predicted ice edges. It can be said that the present model of 2.5 km grids satisfies the ship crew requirement of around 10 km ice edge error for 5-day forecast. | |||||
書誌情報 |
en : Polar Science 巻 21, p. 204-211, 発行日 2019-09 |
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ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 18739652 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2019.08.001 | |||||
関連名称 | 10.1016/j.polar.2019.08.001 |