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Skill of medium-range reforecast for summertime extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in 1986–2016
https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/15624
https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/15624d1e73dbf-f220-424e-9a14-bdd64f2af59e
Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||||||||
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公開日 | 2019-06-30 | |||||||||||
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タイトル | Skill of medium-range reforecast for summertime extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in 1986–2016 | |||||||||||
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言語 | en | |||||||||||
タイトル | Skill of medium-range reforecast for summertime extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in 1986–2016 | |||||||||||
言語 | ||||||||||||
言語 | eng | |||||||||||
キーワード | ||||||||||||
言語 | en | |||||||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||
主題 | Arctic cyclone | |||||||||||
キーワード | ||||||||||||
言語 | en | |||||||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||
主題 | Medium-range ensemble forecast | |||||||||||
キーワード | ||||||||||||
言語 | en | |||||||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||
主題 | Forecast skill | |||||||||||
キーワード | ||||||||||||
言語 | en | |||||||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||
主題 | Predictability | |||||||||||
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資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||||||||
アクセス権 | ||||||||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||||||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||||||||
著者 |
Yamagami, Akio
× Yamagami, Akio
× Matsueda, Mio
× Tanaka, Hiroshi L.
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抄録 | ||||||||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||||
内容記述 | The forecast skill for 26 extraordinary Arctic cyclones (EACs) in summer (June–August) during 1986–2016 was assessed using a reforecast data by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s second-generation Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). On average, more than 90% of ensemble members predicted the existence of the EACs for lead times of ≤3.0 days. The average central position error for the EACs decreases to ≤433.1 km (half the mean radius of the mature 26 EACs) for a lead time of 3.0 days, with the average central pressure error of ∼6.9 hPa. The GEFS reforecast for the 26 EACs shows a similar forecast skill to the GEFS reforecast and operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 10 EACs occurred in summer during 2008–2016. There is no trend of improvements in forecast skills of existence, central pressure and position of the EACs at all lead times. In the verification of the strike probability for EACs within a 400-km radius, the probability information is useful in 1.0- to 5.0-day forecasts, although the forecast probabilities were overconfident for lead times more than 1.0 days. | |||||||||||
書誌情報 |
en : Polar Science 巻 20P2, p. 107-116, 発行日 2019-06 |
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ISSN | ||||||||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||||
収録物識別子 | 18739652 | |||||||||||
DOI | ||||||||||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||||
関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2019.02.003 | |||||||||||
関連名称 | 10.1016/j.polar.2019.02.003 |