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Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales
https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/14982
https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/149820beb6197-164e-409b-a93f-70982b94fdb8
Item type | 学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article(1) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
公開日 | 2018-04-04 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
タイトル | Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Arctic cyclone | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Medium-range ensemble forecast | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Predictability | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Warm core | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Cyclone merging | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
著者 |
Yamagami, Akio
× Yamagami, Akio× Matsueda, Mio× Tanaka, Hiroshi L. |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Arctic Cyclones (ACs) can have a significant impact on the Arctic region. Therefore, the accurate prediction of ACs is important in anticipating their associated environmental and societal costs. This study investigates the predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone (AC12) that exhibited a minimum central pressure of 964 hPa on 6 August 2012, using five medium-range ensemble forecasts. We show that the development and position of AC12 were better predicted in forecasts initialized on and after 4 August 2012. In addition, the position of AC12 was more predictable than its development. A comparison of ensemble members, classified by the error in predictability of the development and position of AC12, revealed that an accurate prediction of upper-level fields, particularly temperature, was important for the prediction of this event. The predicted position of AC12 was influenced mainly by the prediction of the polar vortex, whereas the predicted development of AC12 was dependent primarily on the prediction of the merging of upper-level warm cores. Consequently, an accurate prediction of the polar vortex position and the development of the warm core through merging resulted in better prediction of AC12. | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 北極低気圧(AC)は北極域の環境に大きな影響を与えるため、その正確な予測は重要である。本研究では、現業中期アンサンブル予報を用いて2012年8月6日に最小中心気圧964 hPaを記録したAC(AC12)の予測可能性を調べた。その結果、AC12の発達と中心位置を正確に予測できるようになるのは8月4日を初期日とする予報からであった。また、中心気圧と位置の誤差で分類したアンサンブルメンバー間の比較より、上層の極渦の予測がAC12の位置の予測に、低気圧の併合およびそれに伴う上層の暖気核の発達がAC12の発達の予測に影響を与えることがわかった。したがって、上層の極渦の位置と低気圧の併合による上層の暖気核の発達の両方の正確な予測が、AC12の正確な予測につながることが示された。 | |||||
書誌情報 |
en : Polar Science 巻 15, p. 13-23, 発行日 2018-03 |
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ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 18739652 | |||||
DOI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.01.002 | |||||
関連名称 | 10.1016/j.polar.2018.01.002 |